Brief markets: investors should not take economic data too seriously

Inflation data surprises

He MorningStar US Market Index The week of less than 2.3% ended despite an explosion of optimism on Friday when investors dedicated themselves to hunting bargains. Meanwhile, the 12 -month central ICC landed slightly below expectations at 3.2% for February compared to 3.3%. As always, it is important to remember that these inflation figures only offer a vision of what has already happened. By investing, we are always looking to the future, not backward.

The feeling of the consumer for March lost forecasts, and short -term inflation expectations increased up to 4.9%. These developments probably reflect uncertainty around growing tariffs, which can boost higher costs for consumers and companies. For a deeper perspective of how tariffs can affect inflation and growth, this article By Preston Caldwell, the senior economist of the United States. Morningstar, explains the context.

Under pressure consumption actions

Concerns about a squeery were observed in consumer spending in autumn both in the MorningStar consumer cyclic index and MorningStar consumer defensive index Both dropped 4.1% during the week. He MorningStar energy index and MorningStar Public Services IndexThey contain stocks that are traditional paradises when inflation fears intensify, increased 2.7% and 2.5% respectively.

Investors must focus on long -term objectives

While it may seem obvious to establish its investment strategy to address these concerns, there is rarely a direct link between economic data and future investment returns, since markets normally rush to adjust prices to reflect new expectations. Secondly, for most people, investment is a marathon and not a sprint. The objective is to meet its financial objectives while limiting the risk incurred in the long term and not winning each mile. By focusing too much on short -term yields, it is easy to miss the long -term yield promoters that are mainly the quality of the asset you have and the price you pay when buying it.

The yields of high performance bonds increase

Despite the growing inflation concerns, the US Treasury Bonds continued to play their main role in providing stability to portfolios with practically unchanged yields last week, which resulted in an annual gain of 2.2%. In contrast, the MorningStar High performance bond index 0.7% fell as investors aware of value increased the additional performance they demand to accept the risk of breach. For more information about how leading bond fund administrators are combining treasury, high performance and other types of bonds in a single portfolio, see Morningstar’s latest report on Flexible Bond Funds.

China surpasses emerging markets

Most of the main markets outside the United States also lost land, but the decreases were generally smaller. He Morningstar developed the exex index. UU. 1% fell and the MorningStar Emerging Market Index 0.9%fell. Within emerging markets, performance has varied widely during the year to date: China has increased 19%, Taiwan has dropped 5% and India is 1% lower, reminding us of the benefits of being selective when investing in such a diverse group of counties. To find out what markets offer the best opportunities and the most severe challenges for active managers, visit the last Active passive barometer.

Fed: A rate change is not expected

All eyes are now at the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. With interest rates that are expected to remain unchanged, market participants will analyze the attached statement by any indication of what is coming. For Morningstar, you can read more here. You can find out what else is happening this week about this calendar.

In an environment formed by changing narratives instead of hard data, it is vital to monitor what really promotes the success of long -term investment: select high quality assets at sensitive prices. A sensible and aware approach to the valuation remains its greatest ally in uncertain times.