Israel must prepare for a post-Mahmoud Abbas Palestinian Authority

like him Palestinian Authority intensifies its repression against Islamist fighters in JeninThere are growing warnings about the imminent collapse of the PA and the instability this could bring to the region. This marks a critical turning point not only for Palestinian politics but also for Israel’s security.

With Mahmoud AbbasWith Israel’s leadership in decline and the Palestinian Authority losing its legitimacy among its people, Israel must prepare for the consequences of the Abbas era. In a post-Abbas world, the fragile balance of power in the West Bank could collapse, creating a dangerous power vacuum with far-reaching implications for Israel and the broader region.

The PA military operation in Jenin, which began in December 2024, aims to suppress the growing influence of Islamist militants in the area. This crackdown has intensified resentment among the Palestinian population, further undermining the authority of the Palestinian Authority. The authority now faces increasing pressure to balance its cooperation with Israel’s security needs and maintain its standing among its own people.

The PA’s failure to ensure lasting peace or stability in the region has contributed to growing dissatisfaction among Palestinians, making it more difficult for them to view the PA as a legitimate governing body.

For Israel, the implications of this situation are profound. While the Israeli government has supported the PA’s operations to curb growing violence and contain Islamist militancy, there are significant concerns about the PA’s ability to continue functioning as a reliable security partner.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas attends the 11th Developing Countries (D-8) Summit in Cairo, capital of Egypt, on December 19, 2024. (Credit: Egyptian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The failure of the PA’s efforts in Jenin to decisively dismantle armed groups in the region highlights the fragile nature of its governance. This growing weakness opens the door for more radical groups, including Hamas, to exploit the situation and fill the vacuum left by a weakened Palestinian Authority.

If the power of the Palestinian Authority continues to weaken, Israel could face a situation in which radical groups such as Hamas or Islamic Jihad gain strength and influence in Judea and Samaria. This would create a direct threat to Israel’s security, as these groups are committed to the destruction of the Jewish State.

If the Palestinian Authority were to collapse completely, the power vacuum created would be ripe for exploitation by Hamas or other militant factions, threatening to further destabilize the region and pose a direct challenge to Israel’s security.

Some analysts argue that Abbas’s crackdown in Jenin is an attempt to demonstrate the continued relevance of the Palestinian Authority, especially in the eyes of the international community, particularly the United States.

However, this strategy is a dangerous gamble for the Palestinian Authority. By using force against Palestinian fighters, the Palestinian Authority is attempting to demonstrate its ability to govern, but this is unlikely to result in long-term stability.

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Resistance movements in Jenin and throughout the West Bank are deeply rooted, and the Palestinian Authority’s efforts to quell these groups have been largely ineffective. This points to a broader issue: the Palestinian Authority’s ability to maintain control in the face of growing opposition is increasingly in doubt.

Israel has a strong interest in supporting the Palestinian Authority’s security efforts, but it is clear that this will not be enough to ensure long-term stability in the region. The failure to decisively dismantle armed groups suggests that the governance of the Palestinian Authority is faltering.

If the Palestinian Authority cannot maintain control, the resulting instability will create fertile ground for radical groups to flourish. Israel must be prepared for a worst-case scenario, where a complete collapse of the Palestinian Authority could lead to the rise of more dangerous political forces that could directly threaten Israeli security.

To safeguard its interests, Israel must develop a proactive strategy in the face of a possible collapse of the PA. This should include strengthening Israel’s security measures to ensure that any attempt by Hamas or other militant groups to take control of the West Bank is quickly countered.

Additionally, Israel must engage diplomatically to prevent international recognition of any extremist faction that may attempt to replace the Palestinian Authority. By working with moderate Palestinian voices and strengthening regional alliances, Israel can help mitigate the destabilizing effects of the potential collapse of the Palestinian Authority.

Israel’s concern about the possible collapse of the Palestinian Authority is not just hypothetical; The Palestinian Authority’s inability to quell the violence in Jenin and elsewhere suggests that its days as a stabilizing force in the region may be numbered.

The Palestinian Authority’s failure to maintain control could lead to further instability in the West Bank, with radical factions poised to take advantage of the power vacuum. The prospect of extremist groups filling this vacuum presents a significant risk to Israel’s security that cannot be ignored.

The writer, a member of the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.