Snap Insight: No Ukraine Page: Putin has called Trump’s Bluff

Kremlin’s reading suggested that Putin has not moved for any of his maximum long demands to end the war in Ukraine: not his territorial demands for the control of four regions attached and certainly not the demilitarization of Ukraine, including his organization without handling in the organization of the Treaty of the North Atlantic (another) and the restricted size of their armed forces.

It is important to note that Trump apparently lacked a contingency plan for this result.

The rejection of the American proposal would always be a great bet for Putin, one that runs the risk that the United States imposes more sanctions on Russia or even drives US military support to Ukraine as a way of exerting pressure.

The ball is on the Donald Trump court

A week after the American Ukraine agreement put the “ball in the court of Russia,” Trump now finds it in his court. Did I put more pressure on Ukraine to access Russia’s demands or to resort to pressing Russia?

The first is more likely that the second, given the way Trump has played his cards so far. But there are limits as to how successful this approach will be.

In fact, Trump could soon realize that he has reached the end of the road with Ukraine and that the pressure on Russia will be the only way to advance if it is as serious about peace as it has insisted.

Stefan Wolff is a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham and head of the Department of Political Sciences and International Studies.