Trump wants to protect white farmers from South Africa. But potential changes in commercial privileges would damage them

CNN
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A contentious law that allows the Government of South Africa to expropriate land, without compensation in some cases, has enraged the United States, which causes help cuts through Washington and the outbursts of President Donald Trump.

Many fear that the African nation can now potentially lose some of its commercial privileges of the United States as relations between the two countries deteriorate.

South Africa is the largest beneficiary of the Aphric Growth and Opportunities Law (AUGA), a commercial agreement of the United States that provides preferential access free of taxes to US markets for eligible nations of sub -Saharan Africa.

Some US legislators want these benefits to be withdrawn when exhausted to be reviewed this year.

In January, South Africa promulgated the Expropriation actseeking to undo the Legacy of Apartheid, which created huge disparities in land ownership between its white and minority population.

Under the apartheid, the non -white South Africans were dispossessed by the force of their lands for the benefit of whites. Today, about three decades after racial segregation officially ended in the country, black South Africans, which comprise more than 80% of the population of 63 million, have only about 4% of private lands.

The Expropriation Law empowers the South Africa government to take land and redistribute it, without obligation to pay compensation in some cases, if it is found that the seizure is “Fair and equitable and in public interest.”

President Cyril Ramaphosa saying The legislation “would guarantee public access to land in an equitable and fair way.” But the White House does not agree.

Trump and his billionaire advisor born in South Africa Elon Musk believe that the agrarian reform policy discriminates the White South Africans. Since then, the sanctions have continued.

Responding to a branching post on X on the new legislation, musk asked: “Why do you have openly racist property laws?”

In a Executive order issued on February 7, Trump revoked all help for South Africaaccusing the country of human rights violations. He also denounced the position of South Africa against the Israel War in Gaza, saying that the Nation undermined the national interests of the United States.

The Executive Order did not specify what help it was stopping, but almost $ 440 million committed to South Africa in 2023, most of which went to its health sector, according to data on foreign assistance in the United States. website.

Ramaphosa said in a Publish in x Before the order that, with the exception of Pepfar Aid (the emergency plan of the president of the United States for AIDS relief) that constitutes 17% of the South Africa Vivaids program, there is no other financing received by South Africa of the United States. ”

Economist Ndumiso Kubheka told CNN that South Africa could be about to lose its commercial benefits with the United States Baja ago.

“According to changes in commercial policy and national interests of the United States government, there is the possibility of changes and the exclusion of South Africa,” he said.

To remain eligible to Auga, a beneficial nation “It must demonstrate respect for the rule of law, human rights … (and) should not try to undermine the interests of the foreign policy of the United States,” according to the requirements described in its website.

In letter For Trump on February 11, the American representative Andy Ogles and three other Republican congressmen requested that the free access of South Africa taxes be withdrawn to the US market and that diplomatic ties are suspended, expressing the disapproval of their agricultural reforms, their alleged “revenge against Israel” and its “hug of China.”

South Africa exports are partly promoted by agriculture, which represented 10% of the total export profits of the country in 2021, according to the National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC). South Africa is the main agricultural exporter under ago and its greatest beneficiary, according The United States Department of Agriculture.

In Report 2023The department said that two thirds of the agricultural exports of South Africa to the US. ”

Victor Thindisa, senior manager of markets and economic research in NAMC, told CNN that eliminating the Nation from Ause would give a hard blow to its agricultural industry.

“South Africa is likely to face the highest rates of approximately 3% for agricultural exports to the United States if the country is not eligible for the benefits of Agaa,” he said.

“The loss of preferential access to the market for the agricultural sector could lead to a reduction in currency profits, a decrease in the competitiveness of South African agricultural products in the US. UU. And a possible loss of jobs,” added Thindisa.

The measure could also go against the apparent objectives of the Trump administration. The soup of South Africa of his privileges of Agaa due to his expropriation law would damage the same white farmers to whom the United States seeks to protect, according to Chrispin Phiri, a spokesman for the country’s foreign minister.

“If you observe the product that makes its way in US markets, it comes mainly from our agricultural sector, which is mainly white farmers,” Phiri told CNN.

He added that: “It is a known fact that most of our commercial farmers are white. They are the ones who are a majority in the commercial agricultural sector, and have a commercial gain of an agreement such as Agaa. Then, the same people who think they are being persecuted would be persecuted by such a volatile decision. ”

Citrus Grower Gerrit van Der Merwe, which exports to the United States from Citrusdal in the province of Cape Western, told CNN that the probable exclusion of South Africa de Agroa would lead to employment cuts.

“It would affect us considerably and threaten local jobs,” he said. “It is difficult to estimate precisely to what extent. Citrus is the economic heart of Citrusdal, and any shock or change in the industry affect the entire rural community. ”

Justin Chadwick, who directs the Association of Citrus of South Africa (CGA), said the group was concerned about the situation.

“If it is not renewed, it will create a challenging environment for South African citrus. Ago ensures that our citrus fruits are not subject to the tariffs of us. An American rate on South African citrus fruits would make our fruit more expensive for US consumers. ”

Chadwick told CNN that thousands of rural jobs were at risk.

“To give an idea of ​​how many works they are currently connected with the export of Citrus of the United States: it is estimated that 35,000 local jobs from the level of the farm throughout the supply chain, as well as 20,000 additional jobs in the US.

At least 100,000 citrus palettes are sent annually to the US from South Africa, he said, adding that “all US exports in South Africa represent about 9% of our total citrus exports.”

Outside the region of the Americas, which represented 6% of agricultural exports in South Africa in 2024, the African continent is the main market of agricultural goods in the country, representing 42% of its agricultural exports, according to the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).

Other export destinations include Asia and the Middle East, which together totaled 21%, and the European Union, which represented 19% of agricultural exports of South Africa by 2024, showed the Agbiz data.

Despite the relatively lower commercial volume, the US market “matters significantly,” according to Wandile Sihlobo, agbiz chief economist.

“In the first place, exports (to the United States) are concentrated in specific industries, mainly nuts, citrus, wines, grapes and fruit juices. This means that although the risks associated with this market are not so significant in proportion to general agricultural exports, they present challenges to specific industries, ”he said.

Secondly, SIHLOBO said: “The negative feeling that arises from any confrontation with the region of the Americas would have negative effects in South Africa agriculture.
Therefore, it is vital that South Africa maintains positive agricultural relations with this region. ”

For citrus producer Van der Merwe, finding an alternative destination for his product if South Africa is eliminated from exhaust and export to the US. UU. It becomes less profitable would not be easy.

“We would probably still export citrus quantities to the USA., But since the usual tariffs would apply, it would be a great setback,” he said. “South African citrus fruits are valued in other markets such as the Middle East and the EU, and can be considered to be changed to those markets if it is more profitable. But the volume of exports for the US is large, it will be difficult for it to be absorbed elsewhere. ”

The South African leader, Ramaphosa, said Thursday that he was ready to “make an agreement” with the United States to repair his relationships.

“We would like to go to the United States to make an agreement”, saying While answering the questions of Richard Gnodde, vice president of US Bank Goldman Sachs, during a conference in Johannesburg.

“We don’t want to go and explain ourselves,” he added. “We want to go and make a significant treatment with the United States in a wide range of issues.”

Ramaphosa did not specify what the agreement would imply, but said it would cover commercial, diplomatic and political issues.

“We decided that it is not better to have an instinctive reaction,” Ramaphosa said about Trump’s executive order to reduce his nation aid. “We wanted to let the dust settle.”