IEA says that commercial tensions weigh on oil demand, warns about a larger supply surplus

By Giulia Petroni

  The International Energy Agency said that the macroeconomic conditions that support its oil demand projections have worsened during the past month due to global commercial tensions, and that it sees a largest supply surplus of anticipation if OPEP+ increases production beyond April. 

  "The new US tariffs will clearly act as barriers to world trade and economic growth," said the agency based in Paris. "The lack of clarity due to its nature outside again, combined with the potential for retaliation and climbing, has caused uncertainty to shoot." 

  While it is too early to evaluate its impact on the real economy, the IEA said that a "stagnant" scenario induced by the rate, typically, a combination of poor growth and the increase in prices that confuse attempts at the policy formulators, is ready to weigh the general growth of oil demand. 

  The agency reduced its demand growth estimates for the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year to around 1.2 million barrels per day. Now it estimates that the global demand grows at 1.03 million barrels per day of 1.1 million barrels per day before, reaching 103.9 million barrels per day on average. 

  Global growth is expected to be greater than last year, led by China's petrochemical sector. But the agency's projections remain substantially lower than those of the OPEC, since the poster currently expects the demand to grow at 1.45 million barrels per day. 

  Meanwhile, the global oil supply is expected to exceed demand. The agency said that now estimates a cantilever of around 600,000 barrels per day, higher than last month's projections, and that 400,000 additional barrels per day could be added to the market if the OPEC+ proceeds to increase production beyond April and compliance between overproductive members continues to be weak. 

  "The world oil supply is already increasing," said the agency. "In February, he jumped 240,000 barrels a day when he has increased his tenngiz expansion project, pushing the production of kazakhs to the maximum of all time. In other places, Iran and Venezuela increased the flows ahead of stricter sanctions." 

  It is forecast that the total supply will average 104.5 million barrels per day in 2025, with the NO OPEC+ producers that are estimated to add 1.5 million barrels per day of supply. 

  Thursday's IEA report occurs when Brent Crude is traded at $ 71 per barrel, while the US oil meter. UU., West Texas Intermediate, costs around $ 67 per barrel. Futures are pressed for growing concerns about the chaotic deployment of American tariffs and their impact on the global economy and oil consumption, as well as the OPEC+decision to begin to increase April production. 

  The OPEC+ crude oil supply increased by 210,000 barrels per day in February, while the production of the 12 OPEC members increased by 40,000 barrels per day, according to agency's estimates. The OPEC+alliance, which pumps more than half of the world's crude oil, has been retaining barrels for more than two years and is now ready to gradually relax some of its production cuts. 

  The group is expected to add 138,000 barrels to the market next month, but the IEA said that the real increase could be only 40,000 barrels per day, since only Saudi and Algeria Arabia have space to increase production from the February levels. Other Member States have collectively exceeded 1.2 million barrels per day last month. 

  Meanwhile, the new sanctions of the United States against Russia and Iran have not yet interrupted raw charges, and it is still too early to evaluate the potential impact of US tariffs on the perspective of Canadian or Mexican production, according to the agency. 

  On the other hand, the Venezuelan supply is expected to decrease from April when the Chevron license to operate the country expires, and its estimate of raw production for the year was reduced by 190,000 barrels per day. 

  "The risks for the market perspective continue to abound and uncertainties abound," said the IEA. 

  Write Giulia Petroni at [email protected] 

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  March 13, 2025 05:18 ET (09:18 GMT)
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